Australian Macroeconomic Report (18–25 June 2026)
This week's Australian macroeconomic developments centred on the RBA's decision to hold rates, falling unemployment, and consumer and business confidence indices hitting historic lows.
① RBA Cash Rate and Monetary Policy
The RBA held the cash rate at its current level this week. The Nightly reported on 25 June under the headline "Relief for Aussies as RBA leaves interest rates on hold". However, Australian Broker noted the same day in "Unemployment dips, raising fears of another rate hike" that the fall in unemployment has raised concerns about further rate rises ahead.
On 24 June, realestate.com.au published "RBA hike back on the table as underlying inflation creeps towards 2-year high", analysing that the possibility of a rate increase has returned as underlying inflation approaches a two-year high. Markets are closely watching the RBA's next moves based on inflationary pressures and labour market strength.
While near-term rate-rise concerns have emerged, the RBA maintains a data-dependent approach, meaning further economic indicators released before the next meeting will be critical.
② Big Four Banks + Morgan Stanley Rate Outlook
The Adviser reported on 24 June in "Underlying CPI jumps as majors diverge on outlook" that the major banks' forecasts have diverged following the rise in underlying CPI. Some banks have flagged the possibility of further rate increases, while others are forecasting a hold.
On 23 June, realestate.com.au published "'Like a hammer': Major banks split after RBA interest rate warning", noting the banks have taken differing positions following the RBA's rate warning. Exchange Rates Org UK reported on 25 June in "Australian Dollar Forecast: ANZ Cuts Growth Outlook As RBA Hikes Loom" that ANZ has downgraded its growth outlook while signalling potential RBA rate hikes.
With bank forecasts diverging, inflation trends and employment data will be key variables determining the future rate path.
③ Big Four Banks' House Price Forecasts
On 24 June, realestate.com.au reported in "Three more rate hikes now on the cards" that the prospect of three additional rate increases has added uncertainty to house price forecasts. On 25 June, the same outlet published "Inflation up, jobs tight: RBA handed case for triple rate hike", analysing that rising inflation and a tight employment market are providing the RBA with justification for three rate rises.
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported on 25 June in "House prices in two Australian capitals tipped to fall substantially" that prices in two major capitals are expected to fall significantly. Domain published on 24 June "Sydney and Melbourne house prices forecast to fall, while surprise cities emerge as Australia's property market winners", noting that while Sydney and Melbourne prices are forecast to decline, some unexpected cities are emerging as property market winners.
Rate-rise concerns and inflationary pressures are creating short-term downward pressure on prices in major capitals, but widening regional disparities are highlighting relative opportunities in some cities.
⑤ Australian Consumer Confidence Index (Westpac-MI)
The Nightly reported on 24 June in "Budget, rates push consumer confidence to near historic low" that the budget and interest rate pressures have pushed consumer confidence near historic lows. MSN published the same day "'Deeply pessimistic': Grim sign for Aussies", reporting that consumers are deeply pessimistic.
Property Update published on 25 June "Why Australians Are More Miserable Now Than During COVID – and What It Means for Property Investors", analysing that Australians are more unhappy now than during the COVID period, with implications for property investors. Sky News Australia reported on 25 June in "'Stress signal': Horror stat as companies make dire last resort move" on stress signals as companies resort to extreme measures.
Yahoo Finance Australia published on 25 June "Consumer confidence hit a historic low — but stock markets are rallying. Here's why the data may be wrong", suggesting the data may be incorrect given consumer confidence has hit historic lows while stock markets are rising.
While consumer sentiment is deeply negative, rising stock markets suggest a disconnect between the real economy and financial markets, with the possibility that long-term fundamental recovery expectations are being reflected in some asset markets.
⑥ Australian Business Confidence Index (NAB Business Survey)
NAB published on 25 June "Conditions and Confidence fall further - NAB Business Survey Q2 2026", announcing that both business confidence and conditions indices fell further in the second quarter of 2026. Mirage News reported the same day in "Tasmania Tops Business Confidence And Conditions" that Tasmania recorded the highest levels for business confidence and conditions.
The Australian reported on 25 June in "Slice pie at your peril, Lowe warns on redistribution agenda" that former RBA Governor Lowe warned about redistribution policies, reflecting uncertainty about the business environment. Bez Kabli published on 25 June "NAB drops A$4 billion after Judo credit update rattles business lenders", reporting that NAB's market value fell by $4 billion after Judo Capital's credit update rattled business lenders.
While national average business confidence has declined, some regions like Tasmania are showing relatively sound conditions, highlighting clear regional disparities.
⑦ Australian Unemployment Rate and Employment Data (ABS)
According to ABS data, the unemployment rate fell marginally to 4.4 per cent in May. News.com.au reported on 25 June in "Figure that spells relief for millions of Aussies". investordaily.com.au published the same day "Unemployment rate falls marginally over May".
Savings.com.au reported on 25 June in "Australia unemployment rate falls to 4.4% as part-time jobs surge, hours decline", analysing that part-time jobs surged while hours worked declined. hcamag.com published the same day "Job vacancies fall as Australian labour market shows mixed signals", noting that job vacancies are falling as the labour market shows mixed signals.
AAP News reported on 25 June in "Unemployment drop leaves door open to more rate hikes" that the fall in unemployment has left the door open for further rate increases. The Australian published the same day "Unemployment drops but labour market cracks emerge", analysing that while unemployment has fallen, cracks are emerging in the labour market.
Australian Broker reported on 25 June in "Unemployment dips, raising fears of another rate hike" that the fall in unemployment is raising rate-rise fears.
While falling unemployment is positive, the increase in part-time work and decline in hours worked suggest qualitative weakening in the employment market, likely to have complex implications for RBA rate policy.
⑧ SQM Research Insights
realestate.com.au reported on 25 June in "Australian home price falls set to worsen as auction clearance rates collapse" that house price falls are expected to worsen as auction clearance rates collapse. AFR published on 25 June "Tenants under pressure as rents hit record highs", reporting that tenants are under pressure as rents hit record highs.
AFR reported on 24 June in "Sydney house prices could fall up to 7pc next financial year: Domain" that Domain forecasts Sydney house prices could fall up to 7 per cent in the next financial year. News.com.au published on 24 June "'Most severe for decades': Sellers warned", warning sellers of the most severe market conditions in decades.
realestate.com.au reported on 23 June in "Hobart rental crisis deepens as new data reveals hundreds of beds lost" that Hobart's rental crisis is deepening with hundreds of beds lost. Sharecafe published on 23 June "Tax Overhaul Sinks Australian Property Market", analysing that tax reforms are sinking the Australian property market.
While the sales market faces difficulties from collapsing auction clearance rates and falling price forecasts, rents are hitting record highs and rental demand remains solid. Unless the long-term housing supply shortage is resolved, rental market fundamentals are likely to persist.
⑩ Overall Implications
This week's Australian macroeconomic picture showed positive elements including falling unemployment and the RBA holding rates, offset by historic lows in consumer and business confidence, inflationary pressures, and mixed conditions in the property market. For Korean residents and asset holders, vigilance around short-term volatility is warranted, while a medium-to-long-term approach accounting for solid rental demand and widening regional disparities is advisable. Monitor the RBA's future rate decisions and government housing policy changes closely.